Children, come here for a second. Father needs to talk to you. You know how sometimes you really really don't like a decision I've made, but you have to live with it anyways, and in the long run you come to realize it's in your best interests? No? Ok, well trust me, it is. Last night when our beloved Astros traded away the face of the franchise the fans felt that same betrayal, and like you they're too short sighted to see how beneficial this is in the long run. To help try and make thatmore clear, I want to talk about what we got for out two time All Star.
Hunter gave the Phillies a known commodity, and in exchange we planned for our future by picking up four players. Jarred Cosart, Jonathon Singleton, Josh Zeid, and the ever infamous Player to be Named Later. Cosart and Singleton are top 50 prospects in baseball, top two in the phillies farm system, and Zeid is a talented starting pitcher who hit a rough patch when called up to AA-Reading this year but as a reliever has shined with a barelt there ERA in the two's. Is this the best trade imaginable? No. Is it the best trade available, maybe. Is it a good trade for our Astros? Time will tell, but when dealing with prospects you never really know for several years, but I'm hoping yes. Let's look at the top two guys a little more closely.
Jarred Cosart is a scary proposition. His ERA was a stretch under 4.00, but his peripheral statistics indicate that he deserved much better. He comes to us sporting a 3.92 ERA in 20 games, 19 starts, 108IP, 47ER, 7 long balls, 43 walks, 79K, 8HBP, 12 Wild Pitches, a 1.306 WHIP, 8.2 H/9, 3.6 BB/9, and 6.6K/9 on the season. Two things stand out to me. His walk numbers are a little high, but he's also hit 8 batsmen and thrown 12 wild pitches so there's some control issues. However, I'm not worried. Even with these uninspiring numbers his minor league career stats are only inflated to 7.4H/9, 2.9B/9, and 8.0K/9 and a 3.67 ERA To me this means the kid has talent, as demonstrated by his prospect ranking, and it means that he's probably spending time trying to work on his changeup to compliment his already plus fastball and near plus curve. The changeup is an unforgiving mistress, and if you can't throw it just so it becomes a batting practice fastball.
The second thing that stands out to me is that he's already pitched more innings this year then he did in his last two combined thanks to being able to stay healthy. If he can finish this season strong and healthy it will mean good things could be in store. He's going to get a chance to prove himself as he's getting called up to AA-Corpus Christie. Coming off his last start as a Phillie where he threw 7 scoreless innings, I have high hopes.
Jonathon Singleton is a question mark. He could be a future masher, or he could be a flop, but all signs point to him being more than serviceable in the majors. In 228 games spanning 951 plate appearances and 796 at bats we see he has a .288/.391/.447 slash line, 229 hits, 48 doubles, 2 triples, 25 homers, 136 RBI, 170 strikeouts, a and 23 GDP. He's considered to be a plus defender at 1B and all scouting reports agree that he has the hitting ability to be an elite first baseman or a league average left fielder, another position he plays serviceably as the Phillies tried to find room for him on a roster where Ryan Howard was bottlenecking 1B.
There are two numbers that stand out to me more than anything. Not his home runs, which are underwhelming, though he does play in a pitcher dominant league right now, but he only has 23 grounded into double plays in almost 230 games. Nothing kills a rally faster than a soft grounder to the shortstop and a slow runner coming down the line to first (Singleton is considered athetic but while he does have 13 career stolen bases he also was caught stealing 10 times.) The other is his OBP of .391. He has 136 walks, and if you equate that over a 162 game season instead of his current 228 game span that's equal to about 96 walks. He shows patience at the plate.
You'd like to see less strikeouts, a guy striking out 100+ times a season is unfortunate, but if the power comes then you can forgive it. You want a guy who's swing, as one scouting report put it, "has an audible 'whoosh'" to swing the bat as often as he feels comfortable, and based on his strikeout numbers, he has good zone recognition, so those strikeouts could come down as he learns to adjust to pitchers, or they could not. Most power hitters strike out a fair amount. So long as he's not the next Mark Reynolds, 200+K in a season, I'm happy. Comparrisons have been drawn to Frank Thomas and Ryan Howard, and the best part is he's only 19.
With more trades likely to come between now and tomorrow's non-waiver trade deadline, just stay close by so Father can tell you all about it. After all, you can get this same information from about a dozen sources, but only Father knows best.
30 July 2011
The Hunter Pence Trade and Darker Days Ahead
Oh, sorry Children, I didn't hear you come in. . . sit down. I want to talk to you today, because I think there is an important lesson you need to learn. Simply put, be careful what you wish for. Yesterday evening Hunter Pence was officially traded to the Philadelphia Phillies. You may recall I advocated such a trade, and I'm glad it happened, but honestly, I will miss Hunter Pence.
Hunter was not an elite hitter the likes of former Astros Jeff Bagwell and Lance Berkman. Never had 200 hits in a season or 30+ homers in a season, but what he gave you was a top tier hitterwho had a nack for hitting when it mattered. If the Stros were down by 2 runs with no one on base or up by 3 runs guaranteed Hunter was gonna strike out chasing that slider down and away. But if the game was tied and there was a man on second or if you were down by two with the bases loaded hunter would smack a ball to the wall and make it all the way to third just to make sure the bases got cleared.
He played hard on the base paths too. Back in '08 he twice ran so hard and fast that he blew through Dave Clarks stop signs at third (you pretty much have to if you want to score. Clark stops everyone unless the short stop has the ball, then he thinks you have a shot) and used the base runner in front of him almost like a shield as he practically put them on his lap and slid through home plate and the catcher. He's not a base stealing threat, but he can swipe a bag when he has to. Like people used to say of Bagwell, he's not greased lightning, but he's smart on the bases.
In the outfield he was a force. Hunter never met a wall he didn't want to slide or crash into to make an out. It didn't matter if we were down by 6 runs or up by 6 runs, every play was the bottom of the 9th, bases loaded and two outs. Since coming to the league in '07 Pence leads the league with 56 outfield assists. You see him in right field and think, "Hey, I can run on that guy. I'll make this single a double," (or double a triple, or try to score etc.) and it always ends up the same way: Throw-tag-YER OUT!
It's this style of play, where every play is the difference between winning the World Series and going home losers, but with the enthusiasm of a little leaguer seeing Yankee Stadiumm or Fenway for the first time that makes Pence such a valuable commodity. There are better hitters, fielders, base runners, etc. There are better ball players based on pure skill. That's inarguable and statistically factual. But, that being the case, there are also NO ball players who are CONSISTENTLY better than Hunter Pence. His brand of baseball enables him to perform at such a high level, and no one ever says about him, like they do about Hanley Ramirez or jose Reyes, that he takes a play off, or isn't giving his all, and it translates to results. Phillies Phans, you just got another jewel to add to your crown; Treat him right.
So, with Pence now gone, let's look ahead to the (dark) future. We've still got Michael bourn, Wandy Rodriguez, and Brett Myers on the trading block. If we trade all of them only Carlos Lee, Humberto Quintero, and Jason Michaels will be making over $475K and we'll have trimmed $31mil in payroll this year. Hopefully this means the rebuilding has begun in earnest. It started by bringing up Jordan Lyles, continued with the callup of Jose "Mighty Mouse" Altuve following the Jef Keppinger trade, and last night we purchased the contract of JD Martinez, and I won't go over his stats right now, but safe to say he's a mashing corner outfielder who has been chomping at the bit to make it to the show. Welcome to it kid.
So remember Children, be careful what you wish for, you might get it. If you get it, and it stings a little, sometimes that's for the best. Lastly, it's always darkest before the dawn. If that's too many cliches for you just remember: Father knows best. :) Now go outside and play.
Hunter was not an elite hitter the likes of former Astros Jeff Bagwell and Lance Berkman. Never had 200 hits in a season or 30+ homers in a season, but what he gave you was a top tier hitterwho had a nack for hitting when it mattered. If the Stros were down by 2 runs with no one on base or up by 3 runs guaranteed Hunter was gonna strike out chasing that slider down and away. But if the game was tied and there was a man on second or if you were down by two with the bases loaded hunter would smack a ball to the wall and make it all the way to third just to make sure the bases got cleared.
He played hard on the base paths too. Back in '08 he twice ran so hard and fast that he blew through Dave Clarks stop signs at third (you pretty much have to if you want to score. Clark stops everyone unless the short stop has the ball, then he thinks you have a shot) and used the base runner in front of him almost like a shield as he practically put them on his lap and slid through home plate and the catcher. He's not a base stealing threat, but he can swipe a bag when he has to. Like people used to say of Bagwell, he's not greased lightning, but he's smart on the bases.
In the outfield he was a force. Hunter never met a wall he didn't want to slide or crash into to make an out. It didn't matter if we were down by 6 runs or up by 6 runs, every play was the bottom of the 9th, bases loaded and two outs. Since coming to the league in '07 Pence leads the league with 56 outfield assists. You see him in right field and think, "Hey, I can run on that guy. I'll make this single a double," (or double a triple, or try to score etc.) and it always ends up the same way: Throw-tag-YER OUT!
It's this style of play, where every play is the difference between winning the World Series and going home losers, but with the enthusiasm of a little leaguer seeing Yankee Stadiumm or Fenway for the first time that makes Pence such a valuable commodity. There are better hitters, fielders, base runners, etc. There are better ball players based on pure skill. That's inarguable and statistically factual. But, that being the case, there are also NO ball players who are CONSISTENTLY better than Hunter Pence. His brand of baseball enables him to perform at such a high level, and no one ever says about him, like they do about Hanley Ramirez or jose Reyes, that he takes a play off, or isn't giving his all, and it translates to results. Phillies Phans, you just got another jewel to add to your crown; Treat him right.
So, with Pence now gone, let's look ahead to the (dark) future. We've still got Michael bourn, Wandy Rodriguez, and Brett Myers on the trading block. If we trade all of them only Carlos Lee, Humberto Quintero, and Jason Michaels will be making over $475K and we'll have trimmed $31mil in payroll this year. Hopefully this means the rebuilding has begun in earnest. It started by bringing up Jordan Lyles, continued with the callup of Jose "Mighty Mouse" Altuve following the Jef Keppinger trade, and last night we purchased the contract of JD Martinez, and I won't go over his stats right now, but safe to say he's a mashing corner outfielder who has been chomping at the bit to make it to the show. Welcome to it kid.
So remember Children, be careful what you wish for, you might get it. If you get it, and it stings a little, sometimes that's for the best. Lastly, it's always darkest before the dawn. If that's too many cliches for you just remember: Father knows best. :) Now go outside and play.
26 July 2011
To Trade or Not to Trade: Hunter Pence
Welcome Children. Have a seat. Father wants to talk to you about loyalty and finance today.
Hunter Pence is the face of the Astros. He's a local product, a first year draft, worked his way through our minor league system, and with Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt gone, Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio retired, and Wandy Rodriguez being the last remaining Astro from the 2005 World Series team (assuming that he, too isn't gone by the trade deadline) Pence is our new Astro posterchild. We probably owe it to him to hold on to him and try to win a World Series with him so that down the road they can make a feel-good movie about the guy who single handedly carried his team from 36 games under .500 (our position after last night's loss) and falling fast to a World Series trophy in Minute Maid's trophy room.
That being said, it's very likely that in the very near future Pence won't be worth what he's likely to be paid. He's fine right now at 7, he'll likely be ok at 10 after the season and 12-14 after his final year of arbitration in 2012. Then he hits the free agent market after 2013 and he'll want Berkman and Bagwell money without hitting their homers. I'm not a huge proponent of the idea that homers make the game, as many know, but If you're gonna make 15+ million you should hit 30+ homers and play a premium position. Pence plays RF and is good for 25, and according to SABR geeks, which i know nothing about, but have heard said, his power numbers have gone down every yer since '07.
All that aside, since we're a losing club, and since we will be for several years, if we're competitive by 2013 like I hope, then its worth keeping him, overpay to have a face of the franchise type player. If we're not competitive til 2015, like many suspect will be the case, then Pence is 32, hitting the same kind of decline Carlos Lee and Lance were, but with less power to start with but a much larger contract based on the inflation rates we're seeing, so then we hate him.
Children, you're naive if you think we couldn't possibly hate our beloved right fielder - look at Lance. We hated him for not performing, we hated Roy (both home grown players) even though he was pitching like an Ace, but we always resent our largest contracts since they appear to block us from major moves to improve the team via free agency. So fast forward to 2015. Pence is making 15-17mil, maybe more, meanwhile he played his best baseball on losing teams from 2011-2015, and now that we're competing we have a guy who is very likely eating a fifth of our payroll himself and isn't performing at the same level he is now. This hurts us in the trade market because he won't be worth anything, hurts us in the free agent market because we can't afford anything, and on the field because he is a downgrade compared to a big name free agent or maybe he's even holding back some kid liKE Lee is with JD Martinez. Let Pence go, stay a fan, and hope it's a win/win. That's the best kind of loyalty we can show him right now.
One more note on loyalty. Everyone is clammoring for the firing of Ed Wade. They want him and Brad Mills gone now that Uncle Drayton is on his way out of the owner's office. One misinformed poster on Astros.com just HAD to point out that we had sent a good number of players to the World Series San Francisco Giants this year where those pieces are contributing to another World Series. These players contributions are proof that they should not have been let go from the Astros and that we'd definitely be winning right now if it weren't for their loss so Wade needs to go.
WRONG!
We sent two guys there this year, Jeff Keppinger and Bill Hall. Hall has reached new lows hitting .158 with two errors in 10 games for the Giants. Luckily he was practically free since we had the forethought to can him earlier this year and eat h is salary instead of letting him stink up the clubhouse more. Kepp just got there, so his contribution has been minimal, and poor at that, but he wasn't gonna help us win anything anywaysbeing on the wrong side of 30 alreadyy and us being some years away from competing.
Another former Astros (for all of 68 games), Aubrey Huff plays out by the bay now, but we didn't send him there. We traded for him from the Rays then failed to resign him meanwhile giving up Ben Zobrist (RETARDED), under Purpura, NOT Wade. Huff was thought to have been washed up until last year, and has since returned to mediocrity this year.
Lastly there's my favorite position player from 2008, Miguel Tejada. We're not sure if he's 35 or 45, had a lot of good years early on, but Giants fans everywhere would argue that Miggy isn't making much of a contribution at all. They were stoked when Hall and now Kepp got there hoping it meant Miggy wouldn't be playing anymore.
So, holding on to those guys would give us 250 hits in 1016 at bats and only 57 walks good for a .246 batting average. 108 rbis. 19 home runs and 169 strikeouts. To put that in perspective Hunter Pence has 120 hits, 29 walks, 62 RBI's, and 11 home runs to go with 84 strikeouts in a third of the at bats. That equals 313 hits, 76 walks, 162 RBI's, and 29 home runs to go with 219 strikeouts in a comparable number of at bats. That dooesn't really mean anything, it's just a fun exercise in mathematics and mediocrity on the part of former Astros.
So, take these lessons Children and go out into the world, and always remember: Father Knows Best
Hunter Pence is the face of the Astros. He's a local product, a first year draft, worked his way through our minor league system, and with Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt gone, Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio retired, and Wandy Rodriguez being the last remaining Astro from the 2005 World Series team (assuming that he, too isn't gone by the trade deadline) Pence is our new Astro posterchild. We probably owe it to him to hold on to him and try to win a World Series with him so that down the road they can make a feel-good movie about the guy who single handedly carried his team from 36 games under .500 (our position after last night's loss) and falling fast to a World Series trophy in Minute Maid's trophy room.
That being said, it's very likely that in the very near future Pence won't be worth what he's likely to be paid. He's fine right now at 7, he'll likely be ok at 10 after the season and 12-14 after his final year of arbitration in 2012. Then he hits the free agent market after 2013 and he'll want Berkman and Bagwell money without hitting their homers. I'm not a huge proponent of the idea that homers make the game, as many know, but If you're gonna make 15+ million you should hit 30+ homers and play a premium position. Pence plays RF and is good for 25, and according to SABR geeks, which i know nothing about, but have heard said, his power numbers have gone down every yer since '07.
All that aside, since we're a losing club, and since we will be for several years, if we're competitive by 2013 like I hope, then its worth keeping him, overpay to have a face of the franchise type player. If we're not competitive til 2015, like many suspect will be the case, then Pence is 32, hitting the same kind of decline Carlos Lee and Lance were, but with less power to start with but a much larger contract based on the inflation rates we're seeing, so then we hate him.
Children, you're naive if you think we couldn't possibly hate our beloved right fielder - look at Lance. We hated him for not performing, we hated Roy (both home grown players) even though he was pitching like an Ace, but we always resent our largest contracts since they appear to block us from major moves to improve the team via free agency. So fast forward to 2015. Pence is making 15-17mil, maybe more, meanwhile he played his best baseball on losing teams from 2011-2015, and now that we're competing we have a guy who is very likely eating a fifth of our payroll himself and isn't performing at the same level he is now. This hurts us in the trade market because he won't be worth anything, hurts us in the free agent market because we can't afford anything, and on the field because he is a downgrade compared to a big name free agent or maybe he's even holding back some kid liKE Lee is with JD Martinez. Let Pence go, stay a fan, and hope it's a win/win. That's the best kind of loyalty we can show him right now.
One more note on loyalty. Everyone is clammoring for the firing of Ed Wade. They want him and Brad Mills gone now that Uncle Drayton is on his way out of the owner's office. One misinformed poster on Astros.com just HAD to point out that we had sent a good number of players to the World Series San Francisco Giants this year where those pieces are contributing to another World Series. These players contributions are proof that they should not have been let go from the Astros and that we'd definitely be winning right now if it weren't for their loss so Wade needs to go.
WRONG!
We sent two guys there this year, Jeff Keppinger and Bill Hall. Hall has reached new lows hitting .158 with two errors in 10 games for the Giants. Luckily he was practically free since we had the forethought to can him earlier this year and eat h is salary instead of letting him stink up the clubhouse more. Kepp just got there, so his contribution has been minimal, and poor at that, but he wasn't gonna help us win anything anywaysbeing on the wrong side of 30 alreadyy and us being some years away from competing.
Another former Astros (for all of 68 games), Aubrey Huff plays out by the bay now, but we didn't send him there. We traded for him from the Rays then failed to resign him meanwhile giving up Ben Zobrist (RETARDED), under Purpura, NOT Wade. Huff was thought to have been washed up until last year, and has since returned to mediocrity this year.
Lastly there's my favorite position player from 2008, Miguel Tejada. We're not sure if he's 35 or 45, had a lot of good years early on, but Giants fans everywhere would argue that Miggy isn't making much of a contribution at all. They were stoked when Hall and now Kepp got there hoping it meant Miggy wouldn't be playing anymore.
So, holding on to those guys would give us 250 hits in 1016 at bats and only 57 walks good for a .246 batting average. 108 rbis. 19 home runs and 169 strikeouts. To put that in perspective Hunter Pence has 120 hits, 29 walks, 62 RBI's, and 11 home runs to go with 84 strikeouts in a third of the at bats. That equals 313 hits, 76 walks, 162 RBI's, and 29 home runs to go with 219 strikeouts in a comparable number of at bats. That dooesn't really mean anything, it's just a fun exercise in mathematics and mediocrity on the part of former Astros.
So, take these lessons Children and go out into the world, and always remember: Father Knows Best
Meet Father
Welcome Children. Come in to Father's study - have a seat. So, Father is new to blogging, but I must admit, you kids and your soccial media crazy have finally gotten to me. I must keep with the times.
That being said, while Father knows a lot about many things, some of which we will discuss on slower days, mostly we will be talking about sports. Specifically Father is a big fan of the Houston Astros and the Dallas Cowboys, so we're going to talk a lot about them and a little bit about other teams as interesting things happen, like Tim Tebow being on the verge of starting for Elway's Broncos.
So, feel free to come to D.A.D's Study anytime. I'll never steer you wrong, because remember children, Father knows best.
That being said, while Father knows a lot about many things, some of which we will discuss on slower days, mostly we will be talking about sports. Specifically Father is a big fan of the Houston Astros and the Dallas Cowboys, so we're going to talk a lot about them and a little bit about other teams as interesting things happen, like Tim Tebow being on the verge of starting for Elway's Broncos.
So, feel free to come to D.A.D's Study anytime. I'll never steer you wrong, because remember children, Father knows best.
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