Hunter Pence is the face of the Astros. He's a local product, a first year draft, worked his way through our minor league system, and with Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt gone, Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio retired, and Wandy Rodriguez being the last remaining Astro from the 2005 World Series team (assuming that he, too isn't gone by the trade deadline) Pence is our new Astro posterchild. We probably owe it to him to hold on to him and try to win a World Series with him so that down the road they can make a feel-good movie about the guy who single handedly carried his team from 36 games under .500 (our position after last night's loss) and falling fast to a World Series trophy in Minute Maid's trophy room.
That being said, it's very likely that in the very near future Pence won't be worth what he's likely to be paid. He's fine right now at 7, he'll likely be ok at 10 after the season and 12-14 after his final year of arbitration in 2012. Then he hits the free agent market after 2013 and he'll want Berkman and Bagwell money without hitting their homers. I'm not a huge proponent of the idea that homers make the game, as many know, but If you're gonna make 15+ million you should hit 30+ homers and play a premium position. Pence plays RF and is good for 25, and according to SABR geeks, which i know nothing about, but have heard said, his power numbers have gone down every yer since '07.
All that aside, since we're a losing club, and since we will be for several years, if we're competitive by 2013 like I hope, then its worth keeping him, overpay to have a face of the franchise type player. If we're not competitive til 2015, like many suspect will be the case, then Pence is 32, hitting the same kind of decline Carlos Lee and Lance were, but with less power to start with but a much larger contract based on the inflation rates we're seeing, so then we hate him.
Children, you're naive if you think we couldn't possibly hate our beloved right fielder - look at Lance. We hated him for not performing, we hated Roy (both home grown players) even though he was pitching like an Ace, but we always resent our largest contracts since they appear to block us from major moves to improve the team via free agency. So fast forward to 2015. Pence is making 15-17mil, maybe more, meanwhile he played his best baseball on losing teams from 2011-2015, and now that we're competing we have a guy who is very likely eating a fifth of our payroll himself and isn't performing at the same level he is now. This hurts us in the trade market because he won't be worth anything, hurts us in the free agent market because we can't afford anything, and on the field because he is a downgrade compared to a big name free agent or maybe he's even holding back some kid liKE Lee is with JD Martinez. Let Pence go, stay a fan, and hope it's a win/win. That's the best kind of loyalty we can show him right now.
One more note on loyalty. Everyone is clammoring for the firing of Ed Wade. They want him and Brad Mills gone now that Uncle Drayton is on his way out of the owner's office. One misinformed poster on Astros.com just HAD to point out that we had sent a good number of players to the World Series San Francisco Giants this year where those pieces are contributing to another World Series. These players contributions are proof that they should not have been let go from the Astros and that we'd definitely be winning right now if it weren't for their loss so Wade needs to go.
WRONG!
We sent two guys there this year, Jeff Keppinger and Bill Hall. Hall has reached new lows hitting .158 with two errors in 10 games for the Giants. Luckily he was practically free since we had the forethought to can him earlier this year and eat h is salary instead of letting him stink up the clubhouse more. Kepp just got there, so his contribution has been minimal, and poor at that, but he wasn't gonna help us win anything anywaysbeing on the wrong side of 30 alreadyy and us being some years away from competing.
Another former Astros (for all of 68 games), Aubrey Huff plays out by the bay now, but we didn't send him there. We traded for him from the Rays then failed to resign him meanwhile giving up Ben Zobrist (RETARDED), under Purpura, NOT Wade. Huff was thought to have been washed up until last year, and has since returned to mediocrity this year.
Lastly there's my favorite position player from 2008, Miguel Tejada. We're not sure if he's 35 or 45, had a lot of good years early on, but Giants fans everywhere would argue that Miggy isn't making much of a contribution at all. They were stoked when Hall and now Kepp got there hoping it meant Miggy wouldn't be playing anymore.
So, holding on to those guys would give us 250 hits in 1016 at bats and only 57 walks good for a .246 batting average. 108 rbis. 19 home runs and 169 strikeouts. To put that in perspective Hunter Pence has 120 hits, 29 walks, 62 RBI's, and 11 home runs to go with 84 strikeouts in a third of the at bats. That equals 313 hits, 76 walks, 162 RBI's, and 29 home runs to go with 219 strikeouts in a comparable number of at bats. That dooesn't really mean anything, it's just a fun exercise in mathematics and mediocrity on the part of former Astros.
So, take these lessons Children and go out into the world, and always remember: Father Knows Best
No comments:
Post a Comment